What the July 1 USMCA Deadline Means for Trump’s Promise to Fix NAFTA
WASHINGTON, D.C — The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) included a mandatory joint review on the sixth anniversary of the agreement. As the anticipated July 1, 2026 review date approaches, it’s important to keep in mind the following:
What’s next in terms of process?
- Because there is no agreement among the three countries to extend the agreement as is for another 16 years, the process now moves into a phase of annual reviews until a potential expiration of the agreement in 2036. Thus, this “deadline” is relatively meaningless in practical terms.
- The planned July 1 “virtual meeting” among the three countries is not likely to produce much substance, given that additional negotiating rounds between the U.S. and Mexico have already been announced for later in July and that the U.S. and Canada have not yet engaged in any formal negotiations.
What are the political implications?
- When Donald Trump replaced NAFTA with USMCA, he called it the “best agreement ever,” but in reality, it has not delivered on his promises. Trump promised 80,000 new manufacturing jobs when USMCA was signed, but the U.S. has tens of thousands fewer manufacturing jobs now than when USMCA began. And, rather than improving the U.S. trade balance, the U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico and Canada has significantly increased.
- The move to an annual review cycle is good news for Democrats, who will likely have an opportunity after the midterm elections to hold Trump accountable for failing to solve the problem he created. This could be a repeat of the dynamic during Trump’s first term, when congressional Democrats used their leverage to demand significant changes to the initial renegotiation of NAFTA.
What needs to be fixed in USMCA to deliver on President Trump’s promises?
- More than 100 congressional Democrats have called for major changes to the USMCA, which they say “has failed to deliver improvements for American workers, family farmers, and communities nationwide.” Public Citizen and more than 600 labor unions and civil society organizations have issued similar demands to either fix the deal’s problems or to get out of the pact altogether.
- Essential changes to the USMCA include:
- Improve workers’ rights and raise wages: Labor unions have called for stronger enforcement of workers rights, tighter rules of origin, and the establishment of a North American minimum wage for manufacturing workers in key sectors so that people can work with dignity and corporations have less incentive to offshore jobs.
- Strengthen environmental protections: Environmental organizations have demanded revisions that support green and union jobs and clean water and air, including binding and enforceable environmental standards, a full elimination of ISDS that undermines labor and environmental safeguards, and a new tri-national body to tackle air pollution.
- Eliminate giveaways for Big Tech: Digital rights advocates have called for the removal of terms inserted into USMCA on behalf of Big Tech that hinder congressional oversight of monopolistic practices and undermine data privacy, the right to repair, and AI transparency.
- Support farmers and food sovereignty: Groups representing farmers and rural communities have called for stronger food labeling and seed-saving rights, and limits on corporate control over agriculture.
- Remove Pharma-friendly terms that keep medicine prices high: Public health organizations have called for the elimination of USMCA intellectual property rules that keep drug prices high, including patent term extensions, market exclusivity, and patent linkage.
- Promote migrant justice and human rights: Migrant rights organizations have urged reforms to address displacement, exploitation, and inequality driven by decades of corporate-driven trade. They called for USMCA revisions that prioritize human rights, fair wages, climate resilience, and inclusive policymaking.